National Security Experts

Who Will Win Budget Battles?

Mon, 07 May 2012 10:00:00 GMT

The House Armed Services Committee on Wednesday will mark up its 2013 defense authorization bill. Despite the Pentagon's request for Congress to swallow its request whole, the bill's first draft rejects many proposals DOD was counting on to meet the Budget Control Act's spending limits. Chairman Buck McKeon's bill rejects the Pentagon's request for two BRAC rounds, reinstates weapons and personnel cuts, denies shifting billions of military personnel funds into the war account and adds on an East Coast missile defense system the Pentagon did not seek. Who will win these battles? Realistically, what should the final Pentagon budget look like?

Is the War on Terror Over?

Mon, 30 Apr 2012 10:00:00 GMT

If Osama bin Laden were still alive today, he would hardly recognize the world he knew. Nor would he see the supposed "clash of civilizations" that he tried so hard to foment over two decades of violent jihad. Instead bin Laden would see Islamist radicals on the election stump in emerging governments in Egypt and Tunisia, pledging cooperation with senior U.S. officials, and even meeting with a few neocons in Washington. He would see a U.S. administration that, having killed most of bin Laden's confederates, is now ready to move into a post-al Qaida era and engage with Islamist politicians as long as they renounce violence and terrorism. He would see Islamist parties that are passionately pursuing power and vested interests within their own countries (Egypt, Libya, Tunisia) rather than against bin Laden's old "far enemy," the United States.

One year after bin Laden was killed, are we still involved in a war on terror? Has the death of bin laden and the rise of the Arab Spring changed anything?

What Happens Next for North Korea Policy?

Mon, 16 Apr 2012 10:00:00 GMT

All eyes were on North Korea's controversial missile launch--and subsequent failure--on Thursday. Does the launch, in defiance of international pressure, mean the Obama administration's effort to engage Pyongyang has failed? The U.S. quickly announced it would suspend food aid, and is huddling with South Korea, Japan, and other allies to consider further retaliation. What steps should be taken? How does this new crisis affect early hopes that the country's new young leader Kim Jong Un would have a warmer-- or at least more rational-- relationship with the West?

What Do You Expect from Negotiations With Iran?

Mon, 09 Apr 2012 10:00:00 GMT

After years of stone-walling, Tehran has agreed to restart talks with the Perm-5 Plus One (permanent members of the UN Security Council the United States, Russia, France, Britain and China, plus Germany) about its nuclear program. Yet even before the talks recommence, squabbling has broken out over the venue, with Iran objecting to the preferred site of Turkey. What are the chances that meaningful progress will be made at the upcoming negotiations? Is there a face-saving deal that would allow Tehran to continue enriching uranium supposedly for peaceful purposes, but of a quantity and quality that do not presage a possible nuclear weapon? Are sanctions biting hard enough to convince Tehran to give up enrichment altogether? If these talks fail, how seriously do you take the Obama administration's warning that they could represent the last chance for diplomacy?

How Do You Rate Obama Administration's Nonproliferation Agenda?

Mon, 26 Mar 2012 11:00:00 GMT

President Obama traveled South Korea this weekend to attend the Nuclear Security Summit, where North Korea's nuclear weapons program and recent threat to conduct a missile test under the guise of launching a satellite were atop the agenda. With the standoff over Iran's suspected nuclear weapons program also coming to a head, how do you rate the Obama administration's efforts to revitalize the global nonproliferation agenda? How important was the "New Start" treaty with Russia, and did it have the desired effect of breathing new life into the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty specifically, and nuclear nonproliferation initiatives more generally? If North Korea does conduct a missile test soon after the summit, or tests another nuclear weapon, how big of a blow will it strike to the nonproliferation agenda? Can the administration take credit for increasing Iran's international isolation with subsequent rounds of sanctions? What if Iran gets the bomb anyway?

How Should the U.S. Military Respond to the Afghanistan Killings?

Mon, 12 Mar 2012 21:15:51 GMT

A U.S. soldier, acting alone, allegedly went home to home opening fire on Afghan civilians, killing at least 16 on Sunday. The military is investigating the incident. What should the military do in the short-term to mitigate this problem? Is this a failure in the chain of command? Should someone be fired/resign?

What's the Best Strategy on Iran at This Week's Israel Meetings?

Mon, 05 Mar 2012 14:39:49 GMT

President Obama told the pro-Israel lobby AIPAC on Sunday that while containment of a nuclear Iran was not an option, there was "already too much loose talk of war." Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak have reportedly told senior U.S. officials that if Israel decides to strike Iran militarily, it will do so without warning Washington--in an attempt to protect the United States from blowback. Should Israel strike Iran's nuclear facilities? Will sanctions ultimately succeed in convincing Iran to give up its nuclear ambitions? If not, should the U.S. launch its own military strike on Iran - either unilaterally or with a coalition of countries that could include the Jewish state?

Should the U.S. Arm the Opposition in Syria?

Mon, 27 Feb 2012 11:00:00 GMT

On the eve of the "Friends of Syria" conference in Tunisia last Friday, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton stated her firm belief that there will be a "breaking point" for the Assad regime, and that an increasingly capable Syrian opposition will find the arms not only to defend themselves, but to "begin offensive operations." Is it time for the U.S. and the rest of the international community to begin supplying those arms to the Free Syrian Army, as a way to hasten the breaking point for the Assad regime? Having definitively sided with the Syrian opposition against the Assad regime, can the international community simply stand by -- as Syrian civilians are killed by the hundreds and even thousands -- and retain its credibility? Conversely, might arming the opposition only increase Syria's descent into an all-out civil war that destabilizes not only Syria, but potentially the entire region? Will arming the opposition to halt a humanitarian disaster draw the U.S. and its allies onto a slippery slope that eventually leads to a full-scale military engagement, as happened in Libya?

Will Defense Hawks win the Defense Budget Battle?

Mon, 13 Feb 2012 11:00:00 GMT

President Obama laid out a new defense strategy and now a budget that has the full backing of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and Chairman Martin Dempsey, but is one that hawks still argue is insufficient, or even dangerous, for national security. Will hawks be able to take on the Joint Chiefs and get the changes they want? Or will the brass wall prove too strong to break? How do you see the fiscal 2013 defense budget year playing out?

Should the U.S. End the Combat Mission in Afghanistan in 2013?

Mon, 06 Feb 2012 11:00:00 GMT

Defense Secretary Leon Panetta caused a PR headache for the White House when he told reporters the U.S. would end its combat mission in Afghanistan in 2013, a year earlier than had been thought. The administration has since been trying - with little success - to walk back the comments.

Do you think Panetta is right to want to end the combat mission next year, and can that be safely done? Does setting a timetable embolden the Taliban? What goals should the U.S. try to accomplish before withdrawing - and, crucially, what can be realistically done?

Who's Right about the Pentagon's New Budget and Strategy?

Mon, 30 Jan 2012 11:00:00 GMT

Depending on whom you ask, the Pentagon's new budget and strategy is either a smart decision to resize and refocus after 10 years of war and in fiscal crisis, or it's a welcome mat for the People's Liberation Army to begin the era of American global decline. Are the hawks right to worry, or is this simple, cold hard pragmatism?

What is the State of the Union?

Mon, 23 Jan 2012 11:00:00 GMT

President Obama is expected to outline his national security and foreign policy achievements in Tuesday's State of the Union address. He recently told Time Magazine it's "pretty hard to argue" that his administration's strategy over the last three years "has put America in a stronger position than it was when we ... came into office." Do you agree? What have been this administration's biggest national security achievements? What needs work? What should be this administration's national security priorities for the coming year?

Is War Brewing Between Iran and the West?

Tue, 17 Jan 2012 11:00:00 GMT

A new round of proposed sanctions targeting Iran's central bank and oil exports to Europe have caused a devaluation of the Iranian currency and a sharp spike in inflation, provoking Iran to threaten to close the Strait of Hormuz and choke off 20 percent of the world's oil supply. Meanwhile, another Iranian nuclear scientist was assassinated this week in what is increasingly looking like an undeclared, covert war between Iran and US ally Israel, even as Iran announced a new uranium enrichment site at a heavily-defended and buried nuclear facility near the holy city of Qom. Will these growing pressures and tensions eventually lead to an outright military conflict between Iran and the U.S. or its allies? If such a conflict starts, should the U.S. use it as an opportunity to strike Iran's nuclear complex militarily to set back its suspected nuclear weapons program? How likely is it that the pressures will finally prove strong enough to force Iran to negotiate away its nuclear weapons program?

What Do You Think of Obama's New Defense Strategy?

Mon, 09 Jan 2012 11:00:00 GMT

President Obama's new defense strategy moves the Pentagon beyond Cold War-era ground wars and post-9/11 counterinsurgencies and into an envisioned era of joint air and naval conflicts with nations like Iran or China, and perpetual readiness to attack global terrorism with flexible and futuristic asymmetric capabilities. Doing so will require shifts and cuts in weapons procurement, significant cuts to the size of the Army and Marine Corps, and reducing Cold War-era programs like nuclear deterrence. What part of the review was most salient, and what was missing?

What's Next for Iraq?

Mon, 19 Dec 2011 11:30:00 GMT

The U.S. military closed its Baghdad headquarters last week, formally marking the end of the war as the remaining 3,500 troops leave the country. After nearly nine years of war, nearly 4,500 American troops killed, 30,000 wounded, and nearly $1 trillion spent--and possibly over a hundred thousands of Iraqis dead and millions displaced within the country and abroad--will Iraq's security forces be able to maintain security within and on its borders? What role if any will the U.S. have in Iraq's future security? What is the greatest challenge Iraqis will face in the next year?