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Paul Sullivan, Professor of Economics, National Defense University

Biography provided by participant

All of Dr. Sullivan's comments and opinions are his alone, and do not represent the National Defense University or any other organization he may be associated with.

Dr. Paul Sullivan has been a professor of economics at the National Defense University (NDU) since July 1999. He is an Adjunct Professor of Security Studies at Georgetown University, where he teaches classes on energy and security. He is also an Adjunct Professor in Georgetown's Department of Science, Technology and International Affairs, where he teaches about energy security in the Middle East, and natural resources and conflict in Africa and the Middle East.

He was Senior Fellow at the East West Institute (EWI) during 2007. As part of his responsibilities he co-lead an EWI delegation to Jordan, where he met with some present and past senior leaders of the country, including members of the Royal Family, to discuss western-Arab relations. He was also part of the first meeting of the EWI Trialogue21 with high-level delegations from China and the EU. He was a central speaker at the EWI conference on natural resources and security in Berlin, Germany in December 2006. Sullivan has also been a research fellow at the Independent Institute, for whom he has written articles on Middle East issues.

Sullivan has also been involved in the energy work at the UNCTAD with a focus on energy cooperation issues and Africa. In December 2006 he was part of an expert meeting on energy issues in developing countries for UNCTAD in Geneva, Switzerland. In late May 2007, he was a central participant in UNCTAD's Oil and Gas conference in Nairobi, Kenya.

Sullivan has been part of the Energy Consensus Group of Washington, DC. He regularly briefs various groups in the Washington, DC area on various energy, Middle East and Islamic issues. Sullivan has been the lead of the Energy Industry Study and the North Africa and Levant Regional Security Study. He is now part of the Environment Industry Study at NDU.

This summer he was 9 weeks in Egypt and Jordan meeting with high-level officials, members of the Jordanian Royal Family, academics, military officials, diplomats from the EU and the Arab world, business persons, and more. He also gave talks at the Institute of Diplomacy in Amman, The Arab Thought Forum (a member of the Royal Family introduced him), The Center for Strategic Studies at the University of Jordan, and an all-hands talk at the Jordan National Defence Academy.

Recently he was part of a 3.5-hour debate filmed by NHK TV of Japan on oil markets, speculators, and the future of energy with energy experts from Japan, China, the UAE and Russia. Sullivan was also one of the discussion leads of the breakout session "the nuclear imbalance in the Middle East" at a major UN conference on nuclear disarmament. He was recently part of a high level, small discussion, which included many former and present senior officials in the US Government, on the financial crisis and green energy at the Brookings Institution.

Recently he ran a workshop on "Energy Systems and Economic Development" for students in the Certificate Program on International Development at Georgetown University. This workshop presented the problems and possibilities found in the energy-development nexus, examples of energy systems (from oil and gas to solar towers, geothermal, ocean energy, efficiency efforts, CSP, wind power, hybrid power systems, and much more), energy-water-food connections, the resource curse, and what is needed to move alternative energy technologies forward in the developing world. In March 2009 he gave numerous talks and briefings on energy, water, political, economic and other issues in Africa, the EU, Central Asia, and more during a visit to Naples, Italy. In early May 2009 he was a featured speaker at the St. Andrews Economic Forum on a panel looking into oil conflicts. (www.saef.co.uk)

He was a member of the seminar on religion and development at Georgetown, and he has been an active member of the working groups on Iraq, Iraq, Libya and "The New Marshall Plan for Water and Energy in the Developing World" at the Atlantic Council. Sullivan was an active participant in the Iraq Roundtables run by PILG, which focused on the Iraqi Constitution and other economic-legal issues. He was also part of the Fusion Group on Public Diplomacy at the State Department, and has been involved in many meetings related to strategic communications with the Arab and Muslim worlds. For six years before his time at NDU, Sullivan taught and researched at the American University in Cairo, Egypt, where he taught classes on the economics and economic history of the Middle East.

Before he moved to Egypt, Sullivan was a consultant to major law firms and others on energy, environment and due diligence issues, and an international energy economist at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. He has lectured at many universities and other venues in the US and worldwide, and was a visiting scholar at Cambridge University for two summers.

Sullivan is an active member of Columbia University's GULF2000 network. He has published on a wide variety of issues related to the economics of war and peace, the political economy of oil and gas, energy security, US-Islamic and US-Arab relations, Iraq, extremism and more. He also has experience in India; having done is Yale Ph.D. research in the country. Sullivan is a member of the College of Fellows of the International Association of Middle Eastern Studies (IAMES), and he is a member of the advisory board of the US-Egyptian Friendship Society.

He is a member of the International Association of Energy Economists, The American Solar Energy Association, The National Association of Business Economists, The Society for International Development, The Middle East Institute, The Shooting Club (Nadi Sid) of Cairo, Egypt, The World Affairs Council of Washington, The US Squash Association and The Yale Club of Washington, DC., The United Nations Association of the Capital Area, and The African Studies Association.

Sullivan is on sabbatical from NDU for 2009. His sabbatical research and writing will include a series of papers on energy and water security in Africa and the Middle East, a group of short articles on the piracy-terrorism-energy connections, a paper on "Obama and the Middle East" for the Institute of Diplomacy, Jordan, and a paper on "The Global Financial Crisis and Africa".

Recent Responses

March 3, 2010 03:34 PM

RE: Saving Civilians, Risking U.S. Troops?

What are the strategic goals? The war in Afghanistan-Pakistan could go on for many years more. The more American lives that are lost and the more Americans who come home psychologically and physically maimed, then the less the public will support the war. The more the public hears about the corruption and criminality that is rife in Afghanistan, the less they will support the war. The more the public hears about how the populations of Pakistan and Afghanistan don’t want us there, the less they will support the war. The more the public begins to fear more for their jobs,…  Read more

February 16, 2010 03:14 PM

RE: What Should Obama Do Next On Iran?

Be Crafty and Clever, But in Context Tightening sanctions is like filling a few of the holes in a large pasta strainer. Most of the water will still get through.   What are our options in dealing with Iran? Well, that is a very complex question. Iran may be in the process of significant political change. Then again, it might just find itself in a much more repressive environment with the same regime in charge that it brutalizing its people. Instead of helping the Iranian people to be free of this regime some actions may prolong their suffering and relative…  Read more

February 2, 2010 12:57 PM

RE: Obama's Weakened Position: What Does It Mean For U.S. Foreign Policy?

Don't Underestimate The President   One should not look at the numbers of minutes in a state of the union speech to gather conclusions about an administration’s actual priorities. The national security machine of the US works 24-7 and it was working through the President’s speech.  His focus on jobs during the speech is an obvious one: unemployment is high and it expected to be high, even from White House projections, for some time to come. The American people are worried about their jobs and their economic futures. No matter what the President says and no matter what he and…  Read more

January 22, 2010 03:19 PM

RE: Haiti: Rating The U.S. Disaster Response

One needs to look at context     Haiti, poor Haiti.  I worked on a project while at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory in the mid-1980s on charcoal briquettes and deforestation issues in Haiti. Back then it was a dreadfully destitute, illiterate, and poorly run country with very high unemployment and massive deforestation. The economic, political, energy and environmental situations of the country were just plain awful back then. Haiti never escaped the poverty and other traps it was caught in. Unemployment in Haiti just prior to the earthquake was about 50-60 %. The main legal industry of the island…  Read more

January 11, 2010 08:23 PM

RE: Are Drone Strikes The Only Game In Town?

If predators are the "only game in town in terms of confronting or trying to disrupt Al Qaeda leadership" then we are truly in failure mode. Such high velocity technological solutions should be just one of the many arrows in the complex quiver we need. Al Qaeda often lives in the shadows. It also often tries to communicate via non-electronic and somewhat traditional means. Also, the drones are controlled sometimes from long distances and at high altitudes, and without real time information backing them up constantly. This may be part of the explanation for the non-terrorist deaths that some of…  Read more

January 5, 2010 02:28 PM

RE: When Do We Go To War In Yemen?

Updated at 9:12 a.m. on Jan. 6. I cannot make any comment about any pending discussions in the government about Yemen. I am not privy to them and anything I would say would be speculation. I will focus on some important aspects of the situation in Yemen and some ideas that might be used in this situation. This issue violent extremism in Yemen seems to be surprisingly new to many in Washington. As is typical there are new and numerous "Yemen experts" popping up all over the media. It is amazing how opportunistic dilettantism can be and Washington is the…  Read more

December 21, 2009 01:39 PM

RE: 2010 Will Be The Year Of... What?

As I in my study looking at the large amounts of snow from the historic storm that hit the DC area, and which all of us on this list predicted to the day and the amounts of snow fallen, I will try to prognosticate on the mostly impossible to guess about fully. The world is complex and the toughest thing about predicting is that it is about the future. Being initially trained as a Ph.D. economist I can look back at all of the economic predictions of the last three decades with a certain amount of sarcasm mixed with humility.…  Read more

December 17, 2009 10:58 AM

RE: Obama Doctrine?

Let's take each section of this separately and then add in a wrap up statement: (1)   Continued American military superiority "The United States of America has helped underwrite global security for more than six decades with the blood of our citizens and the strength of our arms.... So yes, the instruments of war do have a role to play in preserving the peace." Comment: If the world were perfect and morality, ethics and decency ruled the planet than there would be no need for war. If all in the world were completely satisfied with their resources, hopes, dreams and…  Read more

December 7, 2009 10:59 AM

RE: Obama's Plan For Afghanistan: The Pakistan Pillar

Pakistan is one of the most anti-American countries. The people of Pakistan mostly hold the US in contempt and with a great deal of distrust even if the leadership makes noises that they want to have a long term relationship with the US. I also wonder what we mean by long term because the way Pakistan is going now the government may not last long. The US may build relations with the leadership of today but a major question is who will be in charge in 2, 5, 10, and 20 years? Will it be the military, the intelligence…  Read more

November 30, 2009 11:43 PM

RE: How Long Will The U.S. Be In Afghanistan?

Updated at 10:54 a.m. on Dec. 1. If the increase in troops to Afghanistan is to try to duplicate the surge policy in Iraq then those thinking about this are missing some important points. There were many other things happening in Iraq at the same time the surge happened. One of them was the increase in the price of gasoline as requested by the IMF and others. This reduced the incentives for smuggling, which dried up some of the smugglers' funds that went into the insurgency. There was also the program of paying off some of the tribal leaders and…  Read more

November 24, 2009 10:36 AM

RE: Are American Muslims A Threat?

Let us look at the logic of even asking such a question. Would it be appropriate to ask whether Mexican Americans were dangerous because a very small percentage of them are members of street gangs and even fewer are connected with violent Mexican drugs gangs? Would it be appropriate to ask whether Russian Americans were dangerous because a very small percentage of them are members of the Russian Mafia here in the US? Would it be appropriate to ask whether Irish Americans are dangerous because a very small percentage of them are members of organized crime gangs like the…  Read more

November 11, 2009 04:14 PM

RE: Whack-A-Mole In The War On Terror

We should get beyond the simplistic analogies with a children's game called "Whack-a-Mole". First of all it is dehumanizing, aka equating human terror groups with plastic animals. This leads us into simplifying the persons and groups we are trying to counter, eradicate, minimize or co-opt, depending on the circumstances. Furthermore, the children's game assumes that the targets are “unpredictable” to some degree and that they normally remain underground. There are certain degrees of unpredictability in the actions, movements and strategies of many terror groups. But the analog that moves the toys in the children’s game is static, whereas the analog…  Read more

November 6, 2009 11:00 AM

RE: Chi-America: Is This The New Global Order?

The US has much stronger and longer-lasting, and far less contentious, trading relations with our neighbor to the North, Canada. Canada is the number one source of our imported oil, natural gas, electricity, wood, and much more. This is the most intense trading relationship in the world and yet most Americans are unaware of it. They focus too much on our relations with China, and often in a negative way. China is our number two trading partner, but Mexico, our neighbor to the south, is not far behind at number three. Then there is Japan, Germany, the UK and South…  Read more
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