Ronald "Ron" Marks currently serves as Senior Vice President for Government Relations with Oxford Analytica in Washington, DC and as an Executive Advisor for Zeta Associates, a northern Virginia signals software company with extensive business in the Intelligence Community. A former senior CIA official currently living outside Washington, D.C., Ron is native Oregonian, born in Portland, Oregon and raised in Gresham. He graduated from Gresham High School in 1974 and received his Bachelors in Business Administration and Economics from Lewis and Clark in 1978. Ron went on to the study at the Northwestern School of Law and took his Masters in Economics at the University of Oregon in 1982.
Since 1983, Marks has lived in Washington, D.C., where has been married to his wife, Suzanne, an attorney, for 20 years. Ron spent 16 years with the CIA. During that time, he occupied a number of increasingly senior positions including as Intelligence Counsel to former U.S. Senator Bob Dole. During his CIA career, Marks was also: Special Assistant to the ADCI for Military Support, U.S. State Department Program Director for Law Enforcement Issues in Russia and Eastern Europe and a senior budget director at the National Reconnaissance Office.
Since leaving government in 1999, Marks has been a senior defense contractor and a software executive who has testified before Congress and commented extensively on defense and intelligence issues on television and radio as a National Security Commentator for the Fox News Channel. He has appeared on NBC Nightly News, MSNBC and numerous radio news and talk shows. In addition, he has written editorials for the Washington Times on intelligence matters, and the Christian Science Monitor on homeland security issues. He has also commented on C-Span's Washington Journal, NPR and Public Radio International. Ron has been quoted on national and homeland security matters in U.S. News and World Report, The Christian Science Monitor, The National Journal, Government Executive, various Newhouse Newspapers, and Insight Magazine.
In 2005, Marks established the Open Source Intelligence Forum to promote open source information use in the public and private sector. Marks is also an Adjunct Professor at the National Defense University (NDU) where he teaches on Intelligence Matters. Ronald has also written for scholarly journals such as the Washington Quarterly and Cambridge University International Review. He has lectured on national security matters at Christ Church College, Oxford University; the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the Heritage Institute, the National War College, Georgetown University, George Washington University, The Rand Corporation, as well as at several US national security agencies.
Marks is a 2008 Senior Fellow at the George Washington University Homeland Security Policy Institute, the Chairman of the Intelligence and National Security Alliance on Open Source Information, an Associate Member of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, and is a Senior Steering Committee member of the Center for Strategic and International Studies Transnational Threats Board. Ron also served on the Lewis and Clark College Board of Alumni - 2005-07.
One of the recent overused buzz "phrases" in the field of organizational analysis is "wicked problem." It is used to describe a problem that is nearly impossible to solve because of its complex interdependencies and contradictory requirements. Or, as we laymen call it, a real mess. The question of Americans becoming "radical" Islamists certainly falls in this category. And, how we try to "solve" the problem is even more complex, if not nearly impossible. First, some throat clearing on Muslims in America. To tarnish the reputation of 99.9999 percent of America's Muslims with this group of Jihadists is thoroughly insulting… Read more
The United States effort again terrorism is so far a traditional one. And we are not going to make much headway with it. This is a true asymmetric war with no total victories and a likely long line of steps forwards and backwards. I have some deep fears we are predisposed to not getting this one right. One of my greatest concerns for the US Government in the 21st Century – notice I said the U.S. Government and not the American people – is they are stuck in the past. Washington, D.C.’s bureaucracy was built after World War II in… Read more
One of the interesting parts about working with a British-American firm is listening to btoh sides speak of the "special realtionship" between the two countries. For the British, it is a special relationship. For America, not so much. Britain is the old girlfriend that we want to maintain a relationship, occasionally take out to dinner, but don't really want to go much further. They think Athens to Rome. We think they are Athens, Georgia. So, what does this have to do with China. Every time I hear about some grand alliance of their interests with our, I cannot imagine it. … Read more
I have always thought they were two Hillary Clintons. The bad Hillary was unnecessarily confrontational and could cause more problems for herself than any of her enemies. The other, the good Hillary, was a damn good senator who dug into her work, was extraordinarily knowledgeable about her subject matter, and very moderate politically. It is the latter person that has shown up at the State Department. First, Secretary Clinton is proving a willingness to be a team player in an administration that is still sorting out its foreign policy priorities. Had Clinton been anything else, it could be quite destructive and she knows it. … Read more
I think the idea of a Velvet Revolution in Iran is an optimistic one. If you are assuming that a Velvet Revolution is a relatively peaceful transition of power from the current clique of revolutionaries and religious zealots, it is highly unlikely. If you are talking about a moderation and a change of behavior in the current regime and its policies, that is far more likely in the near term -- say five years. This is not Eastern Europe in the 1980's. The situation is far more complex internally and there is no obvious outside oppressor like the Soviet Union.… Read more
So, I am sitting in Paris last week with the wife on our 25th anniversary trip. As usual when I travel abroad, the dollar is collapsing and the price of the local currency is rising. And, of course, the Parisians are being their usual selves -- New Yorkers without the charm and more cigarette smoke. Then, I see on French television that President Obama has won the Nobel Peace Prize. This made my trip. Nothing like watching the ever sanctimonious and utterly phlegmatic French commentators stutter and fumble for a reaction -- mostly, as American icon Homer Simpson would say, "d'oh."… Read more
I have very much enjoyed the technical discussion that has occurred so far. It is a cogent presentation of why various missiles systems work better with others and the like. Complex stuff which poor little policy guys like myself really have a tough time understanding. However, if I might interject a small political note here -- we have just totally screwed over both Poland and the Czech Republic by backing out of our deal with them on missile defense. Governments there went to the wall over this deployment. And, we have essentially ceded to the will of the Russians over… Read more
As I drove by the Pentagon the other day, in a hurry to reach an appointment for which I was late in the rainy and clogged DC traffic, I caught out of the corner of my eye the 9/11 Memorial. Benches washed by the rain on a gray, sad day. All of it brought upon on us unexpectedly eight years ago by fanatics whose goals were to destroy and humble us and establish a fantasy world of caliphates and 12th century morality. In the final analysis, the reason there has been no attack against America since September 11th, 2001 is a… Read more
So, Americans returned from the slumber of our summer vacations to find we have a mess on our hands in Afghanistan. The mess has been around for the last few years. It is simply has gotten to the point now we can no longer shunt it aside. A George Will editorial shoved the issue back into the spotlight for we of the chattering classes. In essence, Will said we cannot “win” and we need to pull back to a position of containment. Will as the Cronkite of his generation. The ugly American boogey man of Vietnam once again thrown up… Read more
I have tried to mix the summer reading up a little this year -- pleasure with a little business. Sadly, the business seems to be overwhelming the lot. As usual, I indulged in my history and biography. The book "Boone" by Robert Morgan was a fascinating character study of an American legend. Morgan did a nice job of breaking down the man and his flaws without dismissing the greatness of his explorations and his courage on a still very raw frontier. I equally enjoyed "Defenders of the Faith: Charles V, Suleyman the Magnificent, and the Battle for Europe, 1520-1536 "… Read more
Theodore White, an excellent political reporter and author, once said that good reporters organize facts within stories. But, good historians organize lives and episodes into arguments. The problem is many historians have so mythologically organized our "victory" over the evils of communism that we have forgotten the rocky, ambiguous "strategy" roads we took to getting there. Neither inevitable nor particularly clear in thought, the "victory" was premised on one simple idea -- that the United States and its representation of a way of life were superior to all others. And, you know something, we were right. And it is on… Read more
Washington cognoscente love to refer to various books to support their varied and, often, less than well thought out positions. One of the books of choice recently adopted is Doris Kearns Goodwin’s book, “A Team of Rivals – The Political Genius of Abraham Lincoln.” A well done study of the Lincoln Administration in the Civil War, it delineates how Lincoln managed to balance off a number of people in his cabinet who not only had opposed him but run against him for the Presidency. I think someone in the White House needs to do something beside quote the title and… Read more
I worked with SecDef Robert Gates for a number of years and admit to being an admirer of his intellect and style. He is, and I mean this as a compliment, a fantastic bureaucrat. Gates analyses the situation, gathers support for action, and then executes in a low key fashion that makes things better. For a guy, who is likely final position in the Federal government, he has picked a great battle -- reshaping our national defense to make sense by objective, not by procurement. Having spend a quarter century in the national security community, I have been stunned at… Read more
First, let me clear the anger I have for this whole stinking messed up process. You cannot ask your CIA people to risk life and limb, provide them with multiple layers of legal opinions supporting their actions, provide briefings to the Congressional leadership on these topics and then turn around and prosecute them in a different Administration. The United States is not some third-world country where you can engage in vendetta politics because you didn't like the policy of the previous guys. Second, Holder and the Dems on the HPSCI are being pressured by the left wing of the Democratic… Read more
Americans have a vision of themselves. Our vision, our ideal, is one of fairness. We work hard. We play hard. We give the other guy a break. But, we are also tough and like to win. In our past wars, we have used many means possible to win. We have used spies. We have bombed with napalm. We even used nuclear weapons -- all to defeat enemies who are out to destroy us. However, assassinations – the deliberate killing of an individual directed by the state –is a line we have been justifiably reluctant to cross over the years. It… Read more
We are now in the interregnum in Iraq. The first act has finished. Saddam is deservedly dead and the initial chaos is over. The six year long United States policy, whatever anyone may think of it, did provide that positive service to the world. It eliminated a crazed, genocidal maniac and gave a nation a shot at some form of governmental process. And now, as Paul Harvey said, for the rest of the story. Part two of this venture is going to be far more complex. Jack Kennedy said about Vietnam that in the final analysis, it was theirs to… Read more
There are moments in time when you can hear the proverbially ice breaking in a situation or country. Poland in the early 1980's was one such place. The strikes at the Gdansk shipyards led by Lech Welesa were the event. They were put down with brutality by the Communist regime under General Jaruzelski and his Soviet backers. But the existing social contract between the government and the governed was broken and never returned. A decade later, and a few other social breakdowns in the Eastern Bloc, and Lech Walesa was president of Poland. While you can bend any analogy, I think… Read more
My German born grandfather used an aphorism that applies to both Iran and North Korea -- "the situation is serious, but not hopeless." For a guy who came to America from Oldenberg, Germany with literally the clothes on his back and became a millionaire who literally built a town in Minnesota, I took him at his word. First things, first. All bellicose, political rhetoric aside from armchair soldiers, the United States has neither the stomach nor the resources to engage at the moment in open conflict with either of these nations; particularly a well armed North Korea. The best we can… Read more
There are many things about the British academic system not to like -- including a class structure and learning style meant more for the Middle Ages than the 21st Century. That being said, the British do believe that history is best viewed after fifty years when the fullness of time and insight allows a better view of the action. And, of course, the Chinese stretch it further with Cho En Lai's quote that we have yet to understand the implications of the French Revolution. As for Americas, we are hyper-critical engineers at heart. We like to fix things and have… Read more
I think the Obama Adminstration has put the right cast on the cyberthreat situation and its handling within and without by the USG. It is, as with "hard target" defense, a part of the overall civil defense of the United States in the 21st Century and cannot be put on the back burner.. I understand that, in the first blush of 9/11, cyberterrorism was rightly cast aside for "hard target" concerns leading to a policy of "guns, guards and gates." It is, however, eight years after the event, and while there is no ignoring hard targets -- those who threaten also know that the net… Read more
Mark Twain once said, "let us make a special effort to stop communicating to one another, so we can have some conversation." I hope this is what President Obama does in Cairo. Like it or not, despite all the bombs and wars and death, Western Civilization is in a "conflict of ideas" with the fundamentalists of the Islamic world. And while we do not necessarily think of ourselves this way, the United States is the leading example and proponent of our civilivation. What we say, how we say, and what we do matters. America and the West need to show our ideas are different and better… Read more
Gitmo has to go. No ifs, and, or buts. It is a stain on our national character around the world -- whether some on the right like it or not. This so-called "war on terrorism" or whatever we are calling it these days is about more than killing people who want to kill us. These people are but the smallest of minorities among Muslims in this world. We must remember it is also a war of values. And while we find terms like "neo-colonialism" and "cultural hegemony" strange, those in the Second and Third World do not. Gitmo plays into… Read more
Well, here goes my career. First, my confession and testimonial. I spent five years as CIA Senate Liaison in the 1990's, two years working as Intelligence Counsel to the Senate Majority Leaders Robert Dole and Trent Lott. And, while I am confessing my sins, was and have been a lobbyist on and off since I was a kid some 30 years ago. My father was a lobbyist also and among my childhood memories are of playing the halls of Russell Senate Office Building and sitting in the lap of US Senate Maureen Neuberger (R-OR) playing with her pearls. Believe it or not, after… Read more
The US-North Korean relationship is best described by the great American cartoonist, Charles Schulz, the creator of "Peanuts." In the fall of every year, the egocentric and mean spirited Lucy would invite the selfless and well intentioned Charlie Brown to punt a football. At the last second, Lucy would pull back the football and Charlie would land flat on his back. Lucy would then suggest pithily that Charlie should not have trusted her to begin with and with a "stupid Charlie Brown" walk away. Sadly, Lucy now has nuclear weapons and it we simply have to stop acting like Charlie… Read more
As someone with a couple of degrees in economics, I suppose I should comment on this one. Well, let's try a couple of truisms before I bloviate. Of course, having degrees in economics makes me suspect to begin with on any commentary. (NB: "Maestro Dr. Greenspan.) First, economics is chronic -- rarely fatal. It aggravates or pushes over the edge existing political problems and already moving geo-political trends. Second, and more importantly, watching the news lately, there is nothing like a group of poli-sci majors with one required Econ 101 course taken twenty years talking about the global economy. But,… Read more
Well, I follow this august trio of colleagues with great trepidation. I am but a simple, humble intelligence and policy expert with no regional insights. But allow me some thoughts on the regional political end of this firecracker called Pakistan. Mark Twain once said, an inglorious peace is better than a dishonorable war. I think America is stuck trying to keep an inglorious peace in Pakistan and prop up whatever "non-Taliban" regime is in power in Islamabad. Sadly, we are the only power capable of doing it and are, as they say, already in the area. And, while we are… Read more
The famous writer and critic of the twenties, Robert Benchley, once gave a one word review to a play -- "No." That is my response to any further negotiations with the criminal brothers Castro. Don't get me wrong. I truly appreciate the Obama Administration's attempts to reach out world wide with a new round of bilateral diplomacy. A new Administration should try to start out with a clean slate. The contrast with the Bush Administration is a profound one and may restart discussions in parts of the world where things have gone off the rails. However, in Cuba (as in… Read more
I have quite mixed feelings on this issue. The very name “Truth Commission”, of course, points toward the South African experience of apartheid and the awful “truths” that need to be revealed to heal the 50 years of actions of an oppressive regime. “A Truth Commission” on our actions since 9/11 will exaggerate the nature of what was, for better or worse, a deliberate set of actions taken by the CIA and others under the Bush Administration -- ordered and vetted by that Administration through its Justice Department and its National Security Council – against an enemy that reached out… Read more
There is nothing sadder on a Monday morning than talking about the Pentagon procurement process. It is trapped in an ugly and seemingly endless series of challenges that will likely not end quickly -- only mildly ameliorated by cancellations due to budgetary cutbacks. And, even then, not always logically cut. This is no knock against the good and brave people who manage Defense Acquisition. It does, however, say something about the current system involved in the process -- the Iron Triangle of the Hill, the contractors and the procurers. Let's face it, despite Congressman Skelton's best intentions, most Congressman and… Read more
I do believe one of the international policy issues the Obama Administration needs to tackle is which Cold War institutions are worth saving in the 21st Century. Times are changing rapidly in an increasinly multi-polar world. Whither NATO? NATO has obviously wandered a long way from home over the past 18 years. Designed to meet the Warsaw Pact head on, it has "involved" into a loose military alliance with the US -- EU meets the Pentagon. However, begining in the early 1990's, it has also served as an informal, though questionably potent, protection against Russian nationalism in the "near abroad" of the former Soviet Union. And,… Read more
I have been following the trials and travails of Mexico for the past 25 years. While it is unlikely to collapse into a Colombia/Lebanon type failed state any time soon, it is again going through one of its periodic and sad traumas. In most ways, Mexico is the typical resource based state -- a version of Nigeria for the Western Hemisphere. As the price of oil goes up, there is no real effort to move the wealth beyond the upper ruling class; to develop a truly broad based middle class outside the cities and broad based and deeply entrenched non-oil industries. And in that… Read more
The U.S. and its allies have knocked the hell out of the leadership of Al Queda for the past seven years. We, in traditional nation state pattern, bombed, strafed, and renditioned everything we could get our hands on -- and they are still there. Still plotting. And still popular enough to control regions in Pakistan and Afghanistan and have sympathy throughout parts of the Muslim world. However, they are not all powerful. 9/11 was about showing the Muslim world that they should rise up the West and its Muslim leaders who support them. Whatever sympathy the Arab street has with… Read more
Jay Carafano hit on an excellent point in an earlier blog. The universal access to information in an immediate fashion has focused the national security community too much on the short term -- and by that I mean the last 24 hours or less. No one who is sensible would argue that the economic impact of the last year (and year going forward) will have some kind of an effect on the international "situation." However, I think there is an unfortunate tendency to translate the losses of 401k's and daily economic tracking numbers into long term trends effecting the… Read more
Well, as mom would say, first things first. As someone with a few degrees in economics, I love watching a group of DC political science majors wrestling with the jargon and understanding the deep implications of moves in the international financial and business markets. That being said, the languages and culture of New York and Washington are separated by more than a gap of two hundred miles. We have few people in either place who can speak the lingo of the other. Fortunately, for us, the Obama Administration has a few in key places (such as the Treasury Secretary)… Read more
I, too, am puzzled by what the word "win" means. Afghanistan is a witches' brew of a failing nation -- a terrorist state combined with a narco state combined with tribal loyalties and combined with a government confined primarily to urban areas. So, with this combination of Vietnam, Lebanon, and Colombia, what exactly does "winning" mean. Taking off on Nobel Prize winner Herbert Simon's famous phrase, the best we will do in Afghanistan is "satisfise" -- meet a criteria for adequacy rather than obtain an "optimal" solution. It is up the Obama Administration to determine how the US can "satisfice" in Afghanistan. … Read more
Let me add a note of concern regarding the current review of NSC structure ongoing -- the status of Homeland Security. Currently, the Homeland Security Council is being slated for some type of combination with the National Security Council. The consideration of national security policy across both domestic and international lines is an important distinction vice their segregation. The lack of this broad view, in many ways, provided the framework for the intelligence failures of 9/11. However, we live in an age where old fashioned nation-state national security issues and military issues tend to still dominate the national security scene. Homeland security… Read more
I read Jones' thoughts with a combination of hope and amusement. On the latter point, I sincerely doubt he will be able to exercise much control over a list of participants that include: Hillary Clinton, Robert Gates, George Mitchell and Richard Holbrooke. The hope part is that somehow he can get a system in place that has enough flexibility as least to provide some framework. NSC successes and failure are personal -- between Director and President. The bottom line is the President and Jones' relationship with him. As any good military man knows, you are as good as your air… Read more
I am no expert on this issue, but it seems to this amateur that Washington forgets sometimes that Iran is a sovereign nation with over 70 million people occupying some 600,000 square miles of land. Like it or not, it has an elected, reasonably popular (not loved) government and a history with America that is checkered to say the least. And, like it or not, we are unlikely to engage in any substantial military action against Tehran. So, what can you do with a regime that (with some small variations) is an ideological opponent trying to do us harm in… Read more
I agree with Mike on both the issue of covert action and the leadership of CIA. On the former, the President needs some flexibility regarding covert action overseas. The military bureaucracy is good at special ops. But, special ops is not covert action. Moreover, there are considerable legal implications for combatents engaging in covert action out of uniform vice civilian spies. As for spies versus military, when it comes to flexibility I'll take the spies. As for the leadership at CIA, which remains -- like it or not -- the centerpiece of human intelligence and all-source analysis in the Community,… Read more
One of the more interesting hangovers of the pre-9/11 period is the continued insistence that the IC serves the President and the President alone; especially at CIA. In reality, that is not the case -- nor frankly has it been for some time. The current customers of the IC have expanded beyond the usual national security policymakers (State/DOD) to now including those new "IC Partners" involved in homeland security -- everyone from the Transportation Security Administration to the Centers for Diesase Control. The IC's ability to serve those customers, sadly, has not been good. They have often been treated like third… Read more
Amy Zegart has hit on a very important point regarding any IC reforms -- the role of the Congress. Adapting a quote from a former Vice President, what this country could really use is Congressional oversight. In that crucial role, the Senate and House Intelligence Committees have been sorely lacking. There are some very good staff and members of both committees fighting an uphill battle -- let's face it, no one is going to get reelected on intelligence reform. And, it is tempting to go on at great length regarding collective "failures": not producing authorization bills, "gotcha" reviews of programs,… Read more
DNI Blair is going to be in for a rough ride as he tries to overcome the failures of Intelligence reform going back to the end of the Cold War. Despite the efforts of thousands of good, patriotic people, the system is simply broken. A long string of analytical failures serves as grim testament to this awful fact. And it has not gotten better since 9/11. So far, true intelligence reform has languished despite numerous veiled stabs at it (such as the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Protection Act of 2004) and a host of blue ribbon commissions and panels from… Read more
I agree with Loren on this one -- it is a nightmare version of the movie "Groundhog Day." Both sides reacting to the other in predictable ways; like a longer running version of Bosnia. Hamas will do its best to hang onto Gaza. The bloody footage shown to the Arab world -- and shown in ways we do not begin to see if America -- serves its purpose in inflaming the vaunted Arab street. You'll notice, however, no Arab governments are stepping in hard to help. Iran, as always, is helping to stir the pot a bit with funds and encouragement.… Read more
I think the claim by the Bush Administration is exaggerated, at best. Measuring success or failure by no attacks on US soil is the equivalent of doing "body counts" to measure success in Vietnam. This is a long struggle and quiet on the field or number of terrorists killed is not success. The U.S. response to 9/11 was done "on the fly" and now needs to be reviewed in toto. The attacks on the homeland of America were the result less of anyone's incompetence than a total systemic failure. America's defenses were developed with a primary focus toward large nation state actors… Read more
I worked with Secretary Gates on and off for nearly twenty five years, He will go down as one of the most skilled bureaucrats (and I mean this as a compiment) this town has ever seen. Gates was enormously frustrated that the election of Bill Clinton in 1992 deprived him of the opportunity to make needed changes in the Intelligence Community. Given an opportunity to work with this Administration, he will take it. He shares common ground on US involvment with torture and has a positive relationship with the NSC advisor, Jim Jones. (Remember: Gates served under Brent Scowcroft as his deputy… Read more
The incoming Obama Administration does need to take a look at the US Middle East foreign policy. It is the perogative for any incoming group to see that its stamp is placed on how America views the world and its interests. In "realpolitik" terms, Israel remains a bulwark of that policy. We have a sixty year history of supporting Israel through "thick and thin." Friends and allies are allowed to disagree. Whether the most recent move against Hamas was advisable or not, Israel is hardly a liability to US interests in the Middle East under any circusmtances. It should not be thrown… Read more
I have been a lover of history and biography since my childhood. A well told tale of a life or story of a time and country -- the joys and struggles -- fascinates me. I am currently reading British journalist Richard Reeves' biography John Stuart Mill - Victorian Firebrand. Mills was one of the most famous economists of the 19th Century. He was also a social commentator and activist well ahead of his time seeking rights for the underpriviliged and equality for women. Not popular in his time, but right. The other one in the "rotation" is Rick Perlstein's Nixonland. He does a… Read more
One of the problems of age and health is a long memory. Mine goes back to 1968/69 when Richard Nixon promised his new Administration would get us quickly out of Vietnam. Then reality intervened and we left in January 1973. We also saw North Vietnam breaking through the gates of the Presidential Palace in Saigon in April 1975. I take this little trip down memory lane to remind us that campaign promises -- no matter how sincerely made -- run up against the harsh realities of life. While there maybe a SOFA in place and a leader in Malaki, we… Read more
The Obama Administration's main challenge to any foreign policy decisions anywhere in the world will be its new team's dynamics and lack of coherent process. History has taught us that the most dangerous time in any Administration -- no matter how qualified the foreign policy team -- is in the first year of an Administration. The Obama team is filled with strong, independent players who will be jockeying for position and searching to define roles. Certainly VP Biden will have something to say that will put him athwart SecState Clinton. And National Security Advisor Jones will likely be… Read more
Related Link: http://www.osif.us
