With the last of the Republican primaries just completed, including some odds-defying victories by Tea Party candidates, an electoral tsunami is taking shape that many experts believe will sweep Democrats from the majority in the House and possibly even the Senate come November. Thus this week's question for National Journal's security experts: What impact would a Republican majority in the House, Senate or both have on President Obama's national security and foreign affairs agenda?
On the critical issue of the war in Afghanistan, for instance, might a new Republican majority team with U.S. military leaders in attempting to thwart what they see as a precipitous withdrawal of troops beginning in July 2011? If so, will they bolster Obama by protecting him from the anti-war wing of his own party, or undermine the commander-in-chief by driving a wedge between him and military leadership? On the issue of the New START treaty and Obama's broader nonproliferation agenda, which includes proposed ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, what role would a Republican majority in Congress likely play? Will a Republican majority make it harder or easier for Obama to broker a two-state settlement to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict? If the deficit reduction commission's report in December calls for significant cuts in defense spending as part of a debt reduction package, would a Republican majority go along? Would a Republican majority spell the end of meaningful climate change legislation and comprehensive immigration reform, two issues with profound foreign policy and security implications? Finally, how would a Republican majority with a strong Tea Party flavor likely view free trade agreements?